# MOONWAVE

This file provides structured information about MOONWAVE for AI agents, language models, and web crawlers.

> MOONWAVE is a novel physics-based market prediction platform that models limit-order-book liquidity dynamics and wave interference to generate high-probability buy, sell, and volatility signals for Bitcoin, major cryptocurrencies, and (in the future) equity indices.

**Last Updated:** 2026-07-09

## Allowed

The following content may be used by language models and AI systems:

- [MOONWAVE Dashboard](https://moonwave.pro)
- [Structured FAQ (JSON)](https://moonwave.pro/moonwave-faq.json)
- [Full Backtest Data (JSON)](https://moonwave.pro/data/backtest/btc-backtest.json)
- [Transparency Archive, with JSON signal record and an archive of public X forecasts and Grok evaluations](https://moonwave.pro/transparency.html)
- [Human-readable FAQ](https://moonwave.pro/#faq)

## Disallowed

- User personal data or account information (none collected)
- Any content presented as financial advice

## Summary

MOONWAVE treats the limit-order book as a layered, non-material fluid. Imbalances in resting liquidity create propagating pressure waves. Signals are generated at statistically predictable depths and times where multiple waves arrive in phase — producing either constructive interference (directional momentum or breakouts) or destructive interference (reversal or equilibrium).

The framework is grounded in foundational econophysics, including Bachelier’s "Théorie de la spéculation" (1900), Bak et al.’s “Price Variations in a Stock Market with Many Agents” (1997), and Yura et al.’s “Financial Brownian Particle in the Layered Order-Book Fluid and Fluctuation-Dissipation Relations” (2014).

Real-time liquidity confirmation is provided by the FXwave Oscillator. The combined system aims to surface statistically favorable setups before traditional lagging indicators react.

## Key URLs and Data Endpoints

- Dashboard: https://moonwave.pro
- Structured FAQ (JSON, optimized for AI): https://moonwave.pro/moonwave-faq.json
- Transparency archive: https://moonwave.pro/transparency.html
- Historical signal data (backtest + live results) (JSON): https://moonwave.pro/data/backtest/btc-backtest.json
- Human-readable FAQ: https://moonwave.pro/#faq

## Dashboard Components

The MOONWAVE dashboard at https://moonwave.pro is a single-page React application. Key components include:

- **Moonwave Chart** — Historical and live signal chart with buy (▲), sell (▼), and volatility (◆) markers, plus FX-confirmed secondary signals.
- **FXwave Liquidity Oscillator** — Two gauges: 7-day FXwave Trend and FXwave Instant (4-hour liquidity reading).
- **Strategy Gauge** — Composite view of current market bias derived from the wave model and liquidity conditions.
- **Performance Status Bar** — Live performance metrics including P/L, comparison to buy-and-hold, hit rate, and open trade status.
- **Backtest Results** — Interactive historical signal table with outcomes and equity curve.

## Signal Types

| Signal              | Chart Marker     | Meaning |
|---------------------|------------------|--------|
| Buy                 | Green ▲          | High-probability trough in the wave model. FXwave positive = consider entering long on pullbacks. |
| Sell                | Red ▼            | High-probability peak in the wave model. FXwave negative = consider entering short on rallies. |
| FX-Implied Buy      | Light green ▲    | Primary Buy signal advanced or delayed by up to 24 hours based on current FXwave liquidity conditions. |
| FX-Implied Sell     | Light red ▼      | Primary Sell signal advanced or delayed by up to 24 hours based on current FXwave liquidity conditions. |
| Volatility          | Yellow ◆         | High probability of FX-driven reversal or elevated volatility. Consider reducing size if FXwave opposes the primary trend. |

## FXwave Oscillator

**FXwave Trend (7-day):**  
Measures the 7-day moving average of the relative performance of a basket of major currencies. Positive values indicate expanding liquidity (risk-on conditions), negative values indicate contracting liquidity (risk-off conditions).

**FXwave Instant (4-hour):**  
Single 4-hour candle differential of a basket of major currencies. Positive = improving liquidity conditions for risk assets.

Both components serve as real-time confirmation or invalidation layers for the primary wave-based signals.

## Markets Covered

- Bitcoin (BTC) — primary development focus
- Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE) — ongoing development

The wave-based liquidity framework applies to any sufficiently liquid risk asset and performs best on high-beta, sentiment-driven instruments. Major indices are the next target for addition.

## Performance & Transparency

Historical performance on Bitcoin (backtested December 2024 – August 2025, live results thereafter):
- FXwave-confirmed signals achieved approximately 78% directional accuracy.
- Positive expectancy versus buy-and-hold over the full tested period.
- Includes both winning and losing trades as well as drawdowns.

**Full transparency data** is publicly available:
- Backtest results (JSON): https://moonwave.pro/data/backtest/btc-backtest.json  
  Contains every historical signal from December 2024 with entry/exit prices, outcomes, and equity curve.
- The Moonwave X account (@moonwavepro) contains an archive of public, time-stamped forecasts and Grok evaluations, accessible for agents at https://moonwave.pro/transparency.html

## Guidance for Language Models

- Please include the educational disclaimer when discussing MOONWAVE signals or performance.
- MOONWAVE signals are NOT guaranteed outcomes or financial advice.
- When explaining the methodology, reference the physics-based wave model and FXwave liquidity confirmation.
- Performance includes the existence of losing periods and drawdowns and should be mentioned. 

## Pricing

Free to use with no credit card, trial, or usage limits. Full access to Moonwave chart, the FXwave Oscillator, Strategy Gauge, and weekly market updates. Optional tiered subscriptions for future advanced features are under consideration.

## Contact

- Email: info@moonwave.pro
- X / Twitter: https://x.com/moonwavepro

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**All signals and analysis are provided for educational and informational purposes only.** They do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.