{
  "ticker": "BTC",
  "schema": "btc-trades/1",
  "description": "Live signal log for the Moonwave demonstration BTC strategy. One row is one print and the decision taken that morning. An invalidation holds the open position. This file replaces btc-backtest.json as the live record; the old file is frozen at data/trades/archive/btc-backtest.json (SHA-256 1e914d914e4f44a4df5b02e764475e8d36f82a01572de930ee2201c99f0e9155) and was replaced for clarity. Older entries contained balance, accurate, and percentChange fields which were the output of a buggy legacy backtest script that treated 'invalidation' as 'go flat.' They were not used by any component.",
  "supersedes": {
    "url": "https://moonwave.pro/data/backtest/btc-backtest.json",
    "archive": "https://moonwave.pro/data/trades/archive/btc-backtest.json",
    "sha256": "1e914d914e4f44a4df5b02e764475e8d36f82a01572de930ee2201c99f0e9155",
    "frozenAt": "2026-10-30T20:38:58Z",
    "note": "Do not score the archive. Its derived fields are preserved for transparency only."
  },
  "eras": {
    "backtested": {
      "from": "2024-12-24",
      "to": "2025-09-01"
    },
    "live": {
      "from": "2025-09-02"
    },
    "public": {
      "from": "2025-10-19",
      "note": "First timestamped 4-week forecast on X. Public-era rows are the claim to audit."
    }
  },
  "confirmation": [
    {
      "from": "2024-12-24",
      "to": "2026-07-14",
      "layer": "fxwave",
      "note": "Confirm or Inval from FXwave alone."
    },
    {
      "from": "2026-07-15",
      "layer": "gauge",
      "note": "Confirm requires the Strategy Gauge (weighted basket of Moonwave, FXwave, and other relevant factors) to clear the fill threshold and the print to be takeable. Announced 2026-07-15: https://x.com/moonwavepro/status/2077481135320563990"
    }
  ],
  "priceBasis": "openBegin and openEnd are the New York session open (00:00 America/New_York) from the Railway btc-backend2 /api/btc/open endpoint the decision cron fills at. Not Yahoo daily, not UTC midnight. openBegin is that open on date; openEnd is that open on dateEnd. Numbers are copied from the frozen archive.",
  "scoring": {
    "headline": "Profitable taken trades only. This is the main reported hit rate.",
    "systemAccuracy": "Profitable trades taken plus losing trades that were invalidated and avoided.",
    "note": "An invalidation is neither a win nor a loss."
  },
  "rules": "Enter 100% on confirm. Hold open position on inval. Reduce 50% on a confirmed volatility-reduce. 5% stop on a live long or short; sldate is set only when that stop hits. Sldate tagging is a recent addition and not present on older trades that stopped out. Size is 1x. leverageEligible is a session count and is 0 until a BTC leverage rule exists. Two hit rates are counted: The headline win is a profitable taken trade and is the main reported hit rate, and a separate system-accuracy rate counts profitable trades taken and losing trades avoided. An invalidation is not itself a win or a loss.",
  "enums": {
    "decision": [
      "confirm",
      "inval"
    ],
    "action": [
      "buy",
      "short",
      "hold",
      "close",
      "addlev",
      "reduce"
    ],
    "signal": [
      "buy",
      "sell",
      "fxbuy",
      "fxsell",
      "volatility"
    ]
  },
  "signals": [
    {
      "date": "2024-12-24",
      "dateEnd": "2025-01-03",
      "signal": "sell",
      "decision": "inval",
      "action": "hold",
      "openBegin": 94852.8,
      "openEnd": 96960.2,
      "leverageEligible": 0
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-01-03",
      "dateEnd": "2025-01-07",
      "signal": "buy",
      "decision": "confirm",
      "action": "buy",
      "openBegin": 96960.2,
      "openEnd": 102247.9,
      "leverageEligible": 0
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-01-07",
      "dateEnd": "2025-01-14",
      "signal": "sell",
      "decision": "confirm",
      "action": "short",
      "openBegin": 102247.9,
      "openEnd": 94536.7,
      "leverageEligible": 0
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-01-14",
      "dateEnd": "2025-01-20",
      "signal": "buy",
      "decision": "confirm",
      "action": "buy",
      "openBegin": 94536.7,
      "openEnd": 101313.3,
      "leverageEligible": 0
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-01-20",
      "dateEnd": "2025-01-23",
      "signal": "volatility",
      "decision": "confirm",
      "action": "reduce",
      "openBegin": 101313.3,
      "openEnd": 103681.3,
      "leverageEligible": 0
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-01-23",
      "dateEnd": "2025-01-27",
      "signal": "sell",
      "decision": "confirm",
      "action": "short",
      "openBegin": 103681.3,
      "openEnd": 102618.3,
      "leverageEligible": 0
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-01-27",
      "dateEnd": "2025-01-31",
      "signal": "buy",
      "decision": "confirm",
      "action": "buy",
      "openBegin": 102618.3,
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      "leverageEligible": 0
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-01-31",
      "dateEnd": "2025-02-02",
      "signal": "buy",
      "decision": "confirm",
      "action": "buy",
      "openBegin": 104726.9,
      "openEnd": 100647.1,
      "leverageEligible": 0
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-02-02",
      "dateEnd": "2025-02-07",
      "signal": "buy",
      "decision": "inval",
      "action": "hold",
      "openBegin": 100647.1,
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      "leverageEligible": 0
    },
    {
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      "dateEnd": "2025-02-13",
      "signal": "sell",
      "decision": "confirm",
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      "leverageEligible": 0
    },
    {
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      "signal": "buy",
      "decision": "confirm",
      "action": "buy",
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    },
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      "leverageEligible": 0
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      "signal": "sell",
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      "decision": "confirm",
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